Warrington homes at risk of being lost to sea level rises by 2050s

A list of 20 local authorities, which includes Warrington, shows the areas that have at least 2,000 properties at risk of being lost to sea level rise.

The town is ranked sixth on the list.

And according to lead author of the study, decisions on precisely which and how many of these properties and communities will have to move is dependent on government policy.

The study, Responding to Climate Change Around England’s Coast, claims that significant sea rise by the 2050s is ‘almost inevitable’ – even if emissions are now cut rapidly.

But faster emission cuts will greatly reduce the amount of sea level rise later this century.

Some authorities affected by sea level rise along with Warrington include West Lancashire, Bristol City, Cornwall, East Devon and Ipswich.

The study assessed a number of factors to determine the likely pressure for relocation including the type of settlement and landscape, the existing local authority plan, the economic case for continuing to protect properties, and shoreline vulnerability.

Large towns and cities are assumed to warrant Hold-the-Line protection while small communities are more vulnerable.

The types of areas most at risk from sea level rise include:

1. Single communities e.g. Fairbourne in Wales, which is already due to be abandoned to sea level rise (note that this study only applies to England): These communities contain a large number of properties (Fairbourne has a population of 700 people) but the complexity of the shoreline and floodplain means that the cost of maintaining defences is so large that it can’t be justified.
2. Communities containing dispersed clusters of properties on a long floodplain e.g Somerset levels, East coast and North West.
3. A narrow floodplain, with properties on, constrained between the shoreline and raising ground e.g. Dawlish (Dawlish is being protected but other places like this may not be so lucky) - often roads and railways run along these areas
4. Small quay and coastal harbours communities e.g. quays across Cornwall - low lying properties squeezed between a rising ground and harbour quay walls

Lead author, Paul Sayers, said: “Significant sea level rise is now inevitable. For many of our larger cities at the coast protection will continue to be provided, but for some coastal communities this may not be possible. 

“We need a serious national debate about the scale of the threat to these communities and what represents a fair and sustainable response, including how to help people to relocate.”

Jim Hall, professor of climate and environmental risks and former director of the environmental change institute at the University of Oxford said: “We need to have honest conversations with coastal communities that it will simply not be possible to protect every house and business from sea level rise.

“These changes are coming sooner than we might think and we need to plan now for how we can adjust, including a nationwide strategic approach to deciding how to manage the coast sustainably in the future.”