Council responds after concerns local plan 'overstated' by 3,200 homes

Campaigners have expressed fears over the housing numbers set out in the controversial 20-year plan.

The document says the rate of increase in households ‘decreases significantly’ over the last 10 years of the plan.

It adds that, over the period from 2027 to 2037, household growth will reduce to an annual average of 617 homes per annum, which is based on the 2014 household projections.

The draft outlines proposals for 18,900 – or 945 a year – up until 2037.

However, if 617 homes were built over each year for the last 10 years of the plan, this would see 3,280 fewer homes built in the town, in comparison to the current proposal of 945 homes a year.

Warrington Local Plan Objection Group representative Antony Barker is among those who have raised serious concerns over the housing figures, as well as green belt proposals.

He said: “According to the draft plan, the rate of increase in households decreases to 617 homes per annum from 2027-2037.

“Is the 18,900 therefore overstating the need by over 3,000 homes?

“The 18,900 is not the Government’s formula calculation – as the revised plan makes explicit it is a number four per cent higher, over 700 homes, due to WBC expectations for excess economic growth.

“Unfortunately, it is logically impossible for all regions in the UK to be ‘above average’, hence why the ONS statistics for Warrington already allow for the borough’s specific future.

“The plan also contains a 10 per cent upward contingency on top of the 18,900.

“Since plans need to be reviewed every five years, this contingency is unnecessary as a future plan would have the data underpin to justify a higher number.”

The draft local plan was backed during last week’s full council meeting to pave the way for a nine-week public consultation starting on April 15.

It aims to deliver the homes, jobs, transport infrastructure and community facilities the borough requires.

Town Hall

In addition to the 18,900 new homes proposed up until 2037, a 10 per cent ‘flexibility uplift’ has been factored in, which has resulted in the document setting out plans for 20,790 homes.

But anger is mounting after green belt land was earmarked for up to 7,064 homes and 213 hectares of employment land.

Mr Barker said: “Slightly weirdly, the stated justification for having a higher number is if the land needed doesn’t become available – surely if you haven’t got the land, you are constrained to build less not more?

“According to the plan, the average number of people per Warrington household is around 2.6 according to the 2011 census.

“There may be some change in future demographics but, assuming not, 18,900 homes equates to a population increase of 50,000 in the next 20 years.

“However, this doesn’t concur with the ONS 2016 population projections, which forecast an increase of just 16,000 over the same period – 209,000 rising to 225,000 in 2037.

“This would suggest we only need 6,800 new homes in total over the plan period, less than the brownfield capacity.

“So, having had the benefit of many months to come up with the new plan, can WBC please clarify which number is correct and explain all the internal inconsistencies?

“I and the electorate remain open to early and constructive discussions on the creation of a thriving town centre, supported by affordable and relevant housing, but the latest publication has echoes of the Prime Minister’s pursuance of the same withdrawal plan, or rather Einstein’s alleged observation that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing again over and over again but expecting a different result.”

Warrington Borough Council has responded to the concerns.

It also moved to explain why its projected population in 2037 stands at 240,050.

A spokesman said: “Government planning guidance provides a standard method for calculating Warrington’s minimum housing requirement for the local plan.

“The starting point for calculating the housing requirement is the 2014-based household projections.

“Government guidance is clear that the calculation should be based on the 2014-based household projections and not the more recent 2016 household projections, which the Government does not consider provide an appropriate basis for use in the standard method.

“The requirement is based on projected average annual household growth over a 10-year period, with an affordability adjustment based on the relationship between average house prices and average wages.

Last month, council leader Cllr Russ Bowden said building on green belt land was the 'absolute last resort' for the authority

“For Warrington, using the 2014-based household projections over the first 10 years of the plan, 2017 to 2027, results in a minimum requirement of 909 homes per annum.

“Government planning guidance then states that the minimum requirement should be applied to the whole plan period.

“The local plan is proposing a housing requirement of 945 homes per annum.

“This is in order to ensure the number of homes will balance with the number of jobs that the council considers will be created over the plan period and to ensure affordability of homes for younger households.

“Details of the standard method calculation and how the local plan housing target has been derived are set out in the council’s local housing need assessment.

“As the local plan is proposing to amend green belt boundaries, the council must demonstrate that the revised boundaries are capable of enduring well beyond the end of the plan period.

“In order to do this, the council must consider the likely level of development beyond the plan period.

“The council has therefore considered development needs for a further ten-year period up to 2047.

“As the household projections show the rate of household growth decreases over time, the council does not consider that it is appropriate to use either the plan’s annual housing target of 945, or the minimum annual requirement of 909 to estimate development needs over this longer-term period.

“The council also considers that delivering 945 homes a year over the plan period will ensure that affordability issues in Warrington will have been addressed by 2037 and therefore no further uplift to the household projections would be necessary.

“This forms part of the council’s justification for not proposing to remove additional land from the green belt to be ‘safeguarded’ for development beyond the plan period.”

The council also says the household projections used in the Government’s standard method are derived from the ONS population projections.

The spokesman added: “The 2014 household projections are derived from the 2014 ONS population projections, which forecast higher population growth than the 2016 ONS population projections.

“As the standard method requires the council to uplift its housing requirement above the household projections, then assuming occupation of the new homes is representative of existing households in Warrington, then this will mean Warrington’s population will grow in excess of the ONS population projections.

“The local plan housing target of 945 homes per annum will result in an estimated population of 240,050 in 2037.”

Town Hall chiefs are tipping the local plan to be adopted in late 2020.