Steven Broomhead is chief executive of Warrington Borough Council and writes a regular column for the Warrington Guardian


ANY government would find it difficult to plan ahead and take decisions given the pressured environment of Covid.

The pandemic has highlighted the need to ‘follow the science’ in relation to health guidance and particularly the gradual relaxation of lockdown.

One of the learning surprises for me has been that there is no one version of the truth in relation to the use of published statistics that have a significant impact on policy decisions.

For instance, take the ‘R’ rate which is now used in the political and public domain on a regular basis.

The ‘R’ rate is the average number of people who are infected by one person who has Covid-19. A figure less than 1.0 is positive.

Unfortunately there are four separate and different ‘R’ rates published by universities and government office for science. These different published rates produce confusion, not confidence.

Currently the rate can only be calculated regionally and any ‘local’ figure should be treated with caution.

The ‘R’ rate can only be seen as part of a wider set of indicators, the Government’s 5 tests: 1) making sure the NHS can cope and has sufficient capacity.

2) a sustained and consistent fall in daily deaths. During the peak in April per week, tragically an average of 35 Warrington residents died. Now there are on average five deaths per week.

3) The rate of infection is decreasing to manageable levels from a peak of 26 per day to two per day.

4) The next test is that a good supply of PPE is available. We are now in a good position with this.

5) Finally, ensuring a second peak can be avoided. This one is more uncertain. Everyone is working really hard to avoid a second peak, although the economic focus on the release of lockdown is producing risks. The full implementation of a reliable test and trace system is urgently needed.

Normally policy decisions are based on evidence/data. Increasingly I have noticed that this is not the case.

At the start of April the data model suggested that the best case scenario for our town would be 2,000 Covid deaths and worst case 4,000 before the end of August.

On this basis a decision was taken to invest in two temporary mortuaries at Walton Hall.

Thankfully the data modelling was wrong and the superb and sustained efforts of everyone in the town will result in approximately 400 deaths in the same period.

Every single death is a tragedy and sad loss. You cannot put a price on a person’s life.

Statistics is probably the only science where two recognised experts using the exact same data can reach two different conclusions.

The want to be driven by the science is correct but not one that has been consistently delivered.