Warrington WILL benefit from HS2 - campaigners argue (From Warrington Guardian)

grey_man says...
8:37am Tue 12 Feb 13

The problem with the argument is that the business case for HS2 is fundamentally flawed. It will cost the country more than the economic benefits it achieves because it is based on incorrect assumptions, most importantly that nobody works on trains so that time saving are justified. And this is based on current costs, before we even get into the inevitable cost overruns and delays.

It's a political project, not an economic one.

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HappyMisery says...
9:33am Tue 12 Feb 13

Another politician from the other side of town, unaffected by disruption, championing his own cause. Disgraceful.

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old-codger says...
2:53pm Tue 12 Feb 13

HappyMisery says...
9:33am Tue 12 Feb 13

Another politician from the other side of town, unaffected by disruption, championing his own cause. Disgraceful.”

Exactly, well said HappyMisery..

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Karlar says...
3:35pm Tue 12 Feb 13

The scheme is not financially viable, less so considering our current parlous financial state. If you disbelieve me examine the impact of HS1 on the boroughs through which it runs in the south of England. Look at the impact on the local railway networks, where costs have risen in order to fund HS1, and which on which passenger capacity is still at third of that forecast.
When virtually every other aspect of our lives has to be subject to severe budgetary controls "to bring us back into some where approaching solvency", why is a mad hair brained scheme estimated at £32 billion, but almost certainly three times that eventually, heralded as the panacea to our national recovery? The payback time will merely prolong the recovery. For a fraction of the officially estimated cost of HS2 cost a very high speed internet system could be installed throughout the country. This would feed direct to the offices and homes of Warrington and actually bring some tangible return almost as soon as it was installed. It would also not be dependent upon the majority of users being in the £81,000pa salary bracket, we would all benefit.

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padav says...
7:07pm Tue 12 Feb 13

It would seem that when it comes to High Speed Rail, frightening levels of ignorance are commonplace.

FACT: HS1 cost approx £6bn - it came in on time and more or less on budget against the original contract price (£5.8bn) - to date it has delivered a return of £2.1bn in hard cash (for the sale of a renewable 30 year leasehold) + a bare minimum of £10bn in measureable econcomic benefits - that's a 2:1 ratio payback, so hardly an economic failure
FACT: the WCML is the busiest mixed traffic rail artery in Western Europe - between London and Birmingham it is already fast reaching capacity - by capacity this means available pathways - the rate of passenger demand increase has been relentless for the last ten years at least - the only way to create new pathways for additional capacity is a NEW line so the argument comes down to where you site that NEW line
FACT: the forecast headline budget for HS2 amounts to a per annum spend of under £2bn, for 17 years. Network Rail recently announced a package of much needed upgrades to the existing rail network, amounting to £37bn for the 2014-19 control period - or a spend in excess of £5bn per annum - so we are upgrading the existing network and spending much more pro-rata on it, compared with High Speed Rail
FACT: The UK has had broadband connectivity for the last decade and rail passenger travel has increased concurrently during that period - South Korea boasts the fastest broadband speeds in the world, so why is South Korea also investing heavily in High Speed Rail networks?
FACT: more than 31 million passenger journeys were undertaken on the WCML last year - it is that mature (and increasing year on year) market that HS2 will serve - HS2 will be an economic success story for the UK, delivering untold long term benefits far in excess of its cost, for the next 50 - 100 years.
FACT: only a tiny fraction of HS2's budget is allocated to the present Parliamentary period - if HS2 cannot be afforded, neither can CrossRail, consuming right now (during this period of austerity and public service cutbacks), the very same £2bn per annum spend committed (from 2016 onwards) to HS2
FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall - HS2 will massively increase the supply of available seats, so far from being a rich man's preserve, HS2 is very likely to drive average fares down, distributing the benefits of cheaper rail travel to a much wider section of the UK public

It would seem that when it comes to High Speed Rail, frightening levels of ignorance are commonplace. FACT: HS1 cost approx £6bn - it came in on time and more or less on budget against the original contract price (£5.8bn) - to date it has delivered a return of £2.1bn in hard cash (for the sale of a renewable 30 year leasehold) + a bare minimum of £10bn in measureable econcomic benefits - that's a 2:1 ratio payback, so hardly an economic failure FACT: the WCML is the busiest mixed traffic rail artery in Western Europe - between London and Birmingham it is already fast reaching capacity - by capacity this means available pathways - the rate of passenger demand increase has been relentless for the last ten years at least - the only way to create new pathways for additional capacity is a NEW line so the argument comes down to where you site that NEW line FACT: the forecast headline budget for HS2 amounts to a per annum spend of under £2bn, for 17 years. Network Rail recently announced a package of much needed upgrades to the existing rail network, amounting to £37bn for the 2014-19 control period - or a spend in excess of £5bn per annum - so we are upgrading the existing network and spending much more pro-rata on it, compared with High Speed Rail FACT: The UK has had broadband connectivity for the last decade and rail passenger travel has increased concurrently during that period - South Korea boasts the fastest broadband speeds in the world, so why is South Korea also investing heavily in High Speed Rail networks? FACT: more than 31 million passenger journeys were undertaken on the WCML last year - it is that mature (and increasing year on year) market that HS2 will serve - HS2 will be an economic success story for the UK, delivering untold long term benefits far in excess of its cost, for the next 50 - 100 years. FACT: only a tiny fraction of HS2's budget is allocated to the present Parliamentary period - if HS2 cannot be afforded, neither can CrossRail, consuming right now (during this period of austerity and public service cutbacks), the very same £2bn per annum spend committed (from 2016 onwards) to HS2 FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall - HS2 will massively increase the supply of available seats, so far from being a rich man's preserve, HS2 is very likely to drive average fares down, distributing the benefits of cheaper rail travel to a much wider section of the UK public padav

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Dr Beeching says...
9:24am Wed 13 Feb 13

FACT : I've been travelling from Warrington to London weekly for the past 17 years and I see no evidence of increased passenger numbers. There were 4 people in the carriage in which I returned home last Friday evening (not an unusual occurrence).The packed trains are largely the off peak services in whose number HS2 have seemingly little or no interest.

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Jagman1 says...
9:34am Wed 13 Feb 13

Whilst HS2 trains will be able to travel on existing lines passengers will not be able to get on or off as platform heights are different so no benefit there.

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padav says...
1:33pm Wed 13 Feb 13

@Dr Beeching - thanks for your entirely anecdotal piece of evidence. Can I suggest a trip to Euston Station forecourt, sometime around 18:45 - you'll find a mob waiting to board the first post 19:00 northbound trains

@Jagman1 - please look up the keyword phrase "Classic Compatible" on the HS2Ltd website (or others for that matter). These are hybrid trainsets, designed to run on both new European gauge high speed lines and the existing UK gauge rail network (and transfer seamlessly between them).

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Dr Beeching says...
1:49pm Wed 13 Feb 13

Interesting terminology you use Padav. A "mob" - in other words clientele awaiting the first off peak service. HS2 must already be shelling out a fortune on lobbyists scanning the local websites to input their "made up facts of the day".

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Dr Beeching says...
5:22pm Wed 13 Feb 13

It just gets better and better - joined up thinking at its best ! "London First" says it all.

http://www.nce.co.uk
/news/transport/plan
s-for-12bn-crossrail
-2-unveiled/8642241.
article

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padav says...
6:54pm Wed 13 Feb 13

@Dr Beeching
Yawn! - please try another strategy - you display the same lazy, but all too predictable response - anybody speaking up on behalf of this long overdue project must be in the pay of some vested interest, they must do surely - NO, actually I'm just an ordinary person who has taken the time to inform themselves about the pros and cons of this project and can readily perceive the massive benefits it will deliver for UK plc and for my Region (NW.England) in particular.

I DON'T work in the rail industry and I have no direct or indirect benefit to gain from HS2, save being an enthusiastic future user of the services it will facilitate.

Now, instead of trying to discredit a messenger bearing inconvenient truths, perhaps it might be more constructive to engage with the substantive issues I have raised?

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grey_man says...
7:22pm Wed 13 Feb 13

padav

Is the business case for HS2 based on an assumption that nobody works on trains?

a) Yes

b) No

c) yeah but no but yeah

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old-codger says...
11:29pm Wed 13 Feb 13

Council chief executive Steven Broomhead said there was ‘little to benefit’ Warrington in the current plans while this week Helen Jones MP said the scheme has not been thought through properly. ...

But David Thrower is happy his garden in stockton heath isnt being grabbed by the HS2 development, He said Warrington will not miss out,

But it doesnt gain anything other than half an hour journey time. Its a total waste of money that we havnt got, I do note however that the EU isnt contributing anything to it,
Taxpayers money being spent on this could have been spent on better projects.

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Geoff Siddall says...
11:30pm Wed 13 Feb 13

STOP THE RUSH

We Need To Stop HS2
No Business Case
No Environmental Case
No Money To Pay For It

Why do we need to destroy the landscape, get into more debt and run over people’s lives just to save 30 minute journey time or even one hour.

We have modern technology for business people to keep their business going while they are travelling by train using laptops, smart phones and ipads.

We need to upgrade current rolling stock and service giving people time to think about the business meeting they are heading for or the city they are visiting. What’s the rush?

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Geoff Siddall says...
11:35pm Wed 13 Feb 13

padav wrote:
It would seem that when it comes to High Speed Rail, frightening levels of ignorance are commonplace.

FACT: HS1 cost approx £6bn - it came in on time and more or less on budget against the original contract price (£5.8bn) - to date it has delivered a return of £2.1bn in hard cash (for the sale of a renewable 30 year leasehold) + a bare minimum of £10bn in measureable econcomic benefits - that's a 2:1 ratio payback, so hardly an economic failure
FACT: the WCML is the busiest mixed traffic rail artery in Western Europe - between London and Birmingham it is already fast reaching capacity - by capacity this means available pathways - the rate of passenger demand increase has been relentless for the last ten years at least - the only way to create new pathways for additional capacity is a NEW line so the argument comes down to where you site that NEW line
FACT: the forecast headline budget for HS2 amounts to a per annum spend of under £2bn, for 17 years. Network Rail recently announced a package of much needed upgrades to the existing rail network, amounting to £37bn for the 2014-19 control period - or a spend in excess of £5bn per annum - so we are upgrading the existing network and spending much more pro-rata on it, compared with High Speed Rail
FACT: The UK has had broadband connectivity for the last decade and rail passenger travel has increased concurrently during that period - South Korea boasts the fastest broadband speeds in the world, so why is South Korea also investing heavily in High Speed Rail networks?
FACT: more than 31 million passenger journeys were undertaken on the WCML last year - it is that mature (and increasing year on year) market that HS2 will serve - HS2 will be an economic success story for the UK, delivering untold long term benefits far in excess of its cost, for the next 50 - 100 years.
FACT: only a tiny fraction of HS2's budget is allocated to the present Parliamentary period - if HS2 cannot be afforded, neither can CrossRail, consuming right now (during this period of austerity and public service cutbacks), the very same £2bn per annum spend committed (from 2016 onwards) to HS2
FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall - HS2 will massively increase the supply of available seats, so far from being a rich man's preserve, HS2 is very likely to drive average fares down, distributing the benefits of cheaper rail travel to a much wider section of the UK public

FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall.

We have not seen this basic supply / demand equation on the current rail system. The demand is there as you see lots of fare paying passengers standing because they cannot find a seat yet train prices are going up and up and up.

[quote][p][bold]padav[/bold] wrote: It would seem that when it comes to High Speed Rail, frightening levels of ignorance are commonplace. FACT: HS1 cost approx £6bn - it came in on time and more or less on budget against the original contract price (£5.8bn) - to date it has delivered a return of £2.1bn in hard cash (for the sale of a renewable 30 year leasehold) + a bare minimum of £10bn in measureable econcomic benefits - that's a 2:1 ratio payback, so hardly an economic failure FACT: the WCML is the busiest mixed traffic rail artery in Western Europe - between London and Birmingham it is already fast reaching capacity - by capacity this means available pathways - the rate of passenger demand increase has been relentless for the last ten years at least - the only way to create new pathways for additional capacity is a NEW line so the argument comes down to where you site that NEW line FACT: the forecast headline budget for HS2 amounts to a per annum spend of under £2bn, for 17 years. Network Rail recently announced a package of much needed upgrades to the existing rail network, amounting to £37bn for the 2014-19 control period - or a spend in excess of £5bn per annum - so we are upgrading the existing network and spending much more pro-rata on it, compared with High Speed Rail FACT: The UK has had broadband connectivity for the last decade and rail passenger travel has increased concurrently during that period - South Korea boasts the fastest broadband speeds in the world, so why is South Korea also investing heavily in High Speed Rail networks? FACT: more than 31 million passenger journeys were undertaken on the WCML last year - it is that mature (and increasing year on year) market that HS2 will serve - HS2 will be an economic success story for the UK, delivering untold long term benefits far in excess of its cost, for the next 50 - 100 years. FACT: only a tiny fraction of HS2's budget is allocated to the present Parliamentary period - if HS2 cannot be afforded, neither can CrossRail, consuming right now (during this period of austerity and public service cutbacks), the very same £2bn per annum spend committed (from 2016 onwards) to HS2 FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall - HS2 will massively increase the supply of available seats, so far from being a rich man's preserve, HS2 is very likely to drive average fares down, distributing the benefits of cheaper rail travel to a much wider section of the UK public[/p][/quote]FACT: Basic ecnomics informs us that when you increase the supply side of a basic supply / demand equation, average prices will fall. We have not seen this basic supply / demand equation on the current rail system. The demand is there as you see lots of fare paying passengers standing because they cannot find a seat yet train prices are going up and up and up. Geoff Siddall

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Stan Tonks says...
9:32am Thu 14 Feb 13

Some benefits will be realised sooner than people think. Estate agents in Lymm (****-Chelsea) are already mentioning that due to Lymm's proximity to the proposed airport station this will become a London commuter suburb (look at the SE where people travel similar journey times from places like Canturbury, Folkstone etc to London daily) house prices and rents will go up. So that will bring financial benefit to some - does it cancel out the loss (compensated?) to some in other areas, who can say - at the end of the day a house is worth what the buyer pays, not what the estate agent thinks....

It is a bold vision with a great degree of variability on the parameters involved, only time will tell the truth as to whether the numbers stack up. HS1 is supposed to be bringing in net benefits, Frances TGV is supposedly subsidised, the Americans don't even think about high speed rail despite their NE city belt being ideal (3-4hrs conventional travel Washington - NY), China just gets on with it.

Guess as Warrington will receive both benefits (which individuals may notice or be less tangible) and negative effects (which will be very noticeable to those affected) they'l always be two polarised camps on these issues.

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Stan Tonks says...
9:35am Thu 14 Feb 13

Ha-ha in the post above I wrote Lymm-c u m-Chelsea as in Chorlton- c u m- Hardy and there is obviously a swear filter.

I meant thus, Lymm-in-the-Chelsea.

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Dr Beeching says...
9:55am Thu 14 Feb 13

Padav, I dont need to read anything to tell me that outlay of £30bn + to get me to work 20 minutes earlier is a total waste of money especially when the infrastructure of our country as a whole is crumbling around us. How much is being spent on road upgrades/repair, sea defences, flood protection etc over the period as that proposed for the completion of HS2 ? You dismiss my anecdotal evidence of weekly observations on the WCML but if the planners had bothered to ask the views of the regular travellers rather than rely on manipulated statistics for their models we would be looking at a totally different proposition for sure.

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grey_man says...
10:03am Thu 14 Feb 13

DR Beeching

Apart from anything else I think padav needs a lesson in both economics and recent history of the railroads. There is no pressure to reduce prices in a structurally flawed monopoly. Hence why if I was asked to meet with a potential client in London tomorrow, the standard fare I would pay at peak times to get there and back is £289. If I was to travel with a couple of colleagues, we'd be better off hiring a car and driver to take us there for the day.

HS2 will not reduce these fares. Nor does its business case stack up when you realise that travelling on a train doesn't stop people working. That is the key flaw in the figures the Government cooked up to force this scheme through.

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LJ says...
12:38pm Thu 14 Feb 13

Can I ask, what may be a very immature question?

How will it help Warrington if it isn't going to stop here?

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tarasmum says...
1:40pm Thu 14 Feb 13

Please tell me it won't destroy Lymm Dam? It's bad enough it's affecting Culcheth Linear Park. As ever, wildlife suffers !!!!

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grey_man says...
2:24pm Thu 14 Feb 13

LJ wrote:
Can I ask, what may be a very immature question?

How will it help Warrington if it isn't going to stop here?

I think the answer is that it sort of is, probably. The trains will run on the existing track at normal speeds then join the high speed track at Crewe / Wigan depending on if you're going North or South.

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grey_man says...
2:28pm Thu 14 Feb 13

BTW the correct answer to the multiple choice question is a) although pandav would go for c) - or if he's feeling like lying b).

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HighSpeedDrain says...
5:52pm Thu 14 Feb 13

Well said Dr Beeching and others! Padav thinks he has all the FACTs and considers any objector a paid lackey of some underground organisation. Who’s going to pay us, Padav? I think you would find that we are mostly concerned citizens who do not wish to see the best of our countryside and many peoples’ lives ruined because they are in the path of a juggernaut.
Padav, the fact is that DfT/HS2 Ltd so overload the system with “facts” that it is impossible to get at the truth.
If you look at DfT plans for the North West, only Manchester will have a fantastic service. Every town / city to the west or south down to Birmingham will be in a worse position or only slightly better off. That includes Warrington. See for yourself on: https://www.gov.uk/g
overnment/uploads/sy
stem/uploads/attachm
ent_data/file/69743/
updated-economic-cas
e-for-hs2-_august-20
12_-explanation-of-t
he-service-patterns.
pdf
“Updated economic case for HS2 (August 2012): Explanation of the service patterns.
January 2013”
Their original Phase 2 plan did not even include a single HS train call at Warrington!

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padav says...
6:41pm Thu 14 Feb 13

@Geoff Siddall: "We have not seen this basic supply / demand equation on the current rail system. The demand is there as you see lots of fare paying passengers standing because they cannot find a seat yet train prices are going up and up and up."

errrrr.......that's the point isn't it - demand on the CURRENT (your description) rail system exceeds supply in certain key areas - that's why operators within the supply side can charge a higher average market rate.

HS2 massively increases the supply of seats - approximately 14trains per hour with up to 1000 seats per train - that's an awful lot more on the supply side - yes, demand is increasing year on year but HS2 is designed to soak up all that extra demand and then some, leading to overall average prices falling - that's the basic rationale underpinning HS2

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padav says...
6:45pm Thu 14 Feb 13

@Stan Tonks

Many thanks for your considered response.

One thing you got wrong - TGV services in France are highly profitable - approx €1bn per annum - those profits are used to subsidise loss making services elsewhere on the SNCF classic line network

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padav says...
6:58pm Thu 14 Feb 13

@Dr Beeching: "I dont need to read anything to tell me that outlay of £30bn + to get me to work 20 minutes earlier is a total waste of money especially when the infrastructure of our country as a whole is crumbling around us."

The fact that you describe the complexity of HS2 and the manner in which it will deliver a myriad of benefits rather gives the game away regarding your pre-conceived, ill-informed and fixed mindset on this topic.

I can tell you that £37bn of capital expenditure has already been committed to a five (2014-19) year programme of works on the existing classic line network - that's a pro-rata per annum rate in excess of £7bn - or more than 3 times the annual rate allocated to HS2 for its 17 year construction period (2016-33)

That's the point you just don't want to see (with your blinkers on?) - long term trends point to relentless increases in demand for railborne travel - which has to be met somehow and when it comes to the ECML and WCML, we already know that upgrading the exisiting line is either impractical or a waste of taxpayer funding so a new line has been determined (after a lot of consideration and planning) as the best long term way forward - that means someone, somewhere is negatively impacted - the disadvantages inflicted upon a very small minority are far outweighed by the benefits flowing to the many.

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Karlar says...
8:33pm Thu 14 Feb 13

padav wrote:
@Stan Tonks

Many thanks for your considered response.

One thing you got wrong - TGV services in France are highly profitable - approx €1bn per annum - those profits are used to subsidise loss making services elsewhere on the SNCF classic line network

It was only after 16 years of loss making operation, TVG only managed to operate profitably by adopting the seat booking arrangements of the budget airlines. Its busness case was not predicated on the majority of users having minimum salary levels of £81,000 pa. Using Ryan Airways low-cost high seat take principles the average cost of a TVG ticket from Paris to Marseille (485 miles?) is £22. No matter how much is ploughed back into network rail by HS2, if it ever is, I don't see tickets for Manchester to London (185 miles?) ever approaching that level do you?

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old-codger says...
9:32pm Thu 14 Feb 13

LJ says...
12:38pm Thu 14 Feb 13

Can I ask, what may be a very immature question?

How will it help Warrington if it isn't going to stop here?”

...................

It doe,nt help Warrington at all unless you change at crewe and get an early connection in order to save 20 minutes,
The present system works fine with no changes, Takes 20 minutes longer but is a site cheaper than what this HS2 is going to charge.

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grey_man says...
9:46pm Thu 14 Feb 13

pandav

Your whole argument is irrelevant because the business case is built on a lie. It will cost more than the benefits it delivers. FACT, as you would say.

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LJ says...
9:43am Fri 15 Feb 13

old-codger wrote:
LJ says...
12:38pm Thu 14 Feb 13

Can I ask, what may be a very immature question?

How will it help Warrington if it isn't going to stop here?”

...................

It doe,nt help Warrington at all unless you change at crewe and get an early connection in order to save 20 minutes,
The present system works fine with no changes, Takes 20 minutes longer but is a site cheaper than what this HS2 is going to charge.

That's what I thought

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Dr Beeching says...
10:44am Fri 15 Feb 13

Padav, You seem to exclude the word "affordable" from any of your posts in relation to this fantastic service we have in prospect. The "mob" (as you described them) waiting at Euston for the off peak services are not, with respect, the sort of clientele HS2 are targetting. It will be mugs such as myself who have to travel for work at peak times and who would rather not pay anymore for a service which offers nothing appreciably more than we have at present. It would appear that you are prepared to see the rest of the country fall into a state of delapidation for the sake of this over-hyped White Elephant. If this misguided project goes ahead what are the chances that it will be delivered on time and within budget ? I think we all know the answer to that one. If in any doubt padav it's sponsored by a Government who couldn't handle a straightforward bidding process on the WCML.

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Geoff Siddall says...
1:16pm Fri 15 Feb 13

padav wrote:
@Geoff Siddall: "We have not seen this basic supply / demand equation on the current rail system. The demand is there as you see lots of fare paying passengers standing because they cannot find a seat yet train prices are going up and up and up."

errrrr.......that's the point isn't it - demand on the CURRENT (your description) rail system exceeds supply in certain key areas - that's why operators within the supply side can charge a higher average market rate.

HS2 massively increases the supply of seats - approximately 14trains per hour with up to 1000 seats per train - that's an awful lot more on the supply side - yes, demand is increasing year on year but HS2 is designed to soak up all that extra demand and then some, leading to overall average prices falling - that's the basic rationale underpinning HS2

Thats the point they should not over charge, they should provide more seats.ie put on more or longer trains. or at least stop letting passengers get on when the train is full.

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HappyMisery says...
3:24pm Fri 15 Feb 13

padav wrote:
@Stan Tonks

Many thanks for your considered response.

One thing you got wrong - TGV services in France are highly profitable - approx €1bn per annum - those profits are used to subsidise loss making services elsewhere on the SNCF classic line network

But SNCF is still owned by the government. The privatisation of UK rail services means that none of the overage will be refunded in any way to the tax payer through partial funding, but would go some way to fund the private companies that now operate the rail services. Good to see that HS2 will help the fat cats get more money despite substandard services which have created the need for HS2 in the first place.

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padav says...
12:57pm Sat 16 Feb 13

@Karlar: "I don't see tickets for Manchester to London (185 miles?) ever approaching that level do you?"

I'm not going to predict actual ticket prices, twenty years out because I'm not in the fortune telling business - what I will confidently predict is that overall average ticket prices on the West Coast rail corridor will fall, relative to inflation, in a post-HS2 environment.

Price is a function of supply and demand - massively increase supply and average prices fall - that's a ineluctable reality, no matter how hard you try to use present day circumstances to distort matters and avoid this economic maxim.

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padav says...
1:12pm Sat 16 Feb 13

@Geoff Siddall: "Thats the point they should not over charge, they should provide more seats.ie put on more or longer trains. or at least stop letting passengers get on when the train is full"

OK - I'll try once again to explain

Your solution to higher average prices is; "put on more or longer trains" presumably to provide more seats, ie. more supply

There is nothing wrong with your logic but think about your solution for a moment

a) Trains HAVE BEEN lengthened already - 11 carriage Pendolino trainsets (they were 9 carriages) have been brought into service at peak times - ironically this short term strategy resulted in a slight year on year reduction in seat usage (extra carriages created more seats) at peak times - a statistical anomaly immediately siezed upon by anti HS2 campaingers as evidence of falling demand when in fact it was no such thing - but remember you can only lengthen trains so much, due to the fact that train servicing facilities are only so big and platforms so long

b) Where are you going to put your EXTRA trains on the WCML because the track is effectively full (between Birmingham and London), in terms of train pathways - the logical answer of course is that you have to provide a NEW traintrack for your EXTRA services to run on!

Now, @Geoff Siddall, here comes the punchline

Please explain where precisely you plan to put that NEW train track?

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Dr Beeching says...
1:26pm Sun 17 Feb 13

Padev, Unless I travel off peak, I cant recall the last time I saw a train from Warrington to London even remotely full. In fact, last Friday evening there were 10 people in two of the carriages I went through on the 17.57hrs service out of Euston.

You really must be a gullible sort if you swallow these Govt-sponsored reports. Remember the new Scottish Parliament building ? Intial estimate £10m - £40m versus actual cost of £414m. Furthermore, Crossrail costs are now starting to spiral with work stopped in places. Now, what do you think the real cost of HS2 will be ?

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Karlar says...
2:44pm Sun 17 Feb 13

In order to consider what the future will hold you have to consider the past. In the context of countless other government cost predictions. The example of the Scottish parliament, already cited, is one among many. Remember how North Sea Oil and the Gas were going to lower our fuel bills across the country? Rail privatization was also going to result in lower fares!! They forgot to tell us rail companies would be bailed out and we would have to pay. Remember how nuclear energy was going to reduce our fuel bills at a stroke? We are now paying France for nuclear generated electricity at prices which have a coal dispensation surcharge. There are too many other examples of suck and see economics that give a lie to your fare falling prediction. A casual thumb through MoD files and those of most Ministries show our national bean counters - on whose ability you base your predictions - ineluctably shows they are several beans short of a complete abacus. The business case for HS2 is inherently flawed and can only be supported if you use the questionable logic of politicians, who change the rules and move the goal posts to suit the answer they want and ignore the facts.

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Karlar says...
2:46pm Sun 17 Feb 13

padav wrote:
@Karlar: "I don't see tickets for Manchester to London (185 miles?) ever approaching that level do you?"

I'm not going to predict actual ticket prices, twenty years out because I'm not in the fortune telling business - what I will confidently predict is that overall average ticket prices on the West Coast rail corridor will fall, relative to inflation, in a post-HS2 environment.

Price is a function of supply and demand - massively increase supply and average prices fall - that's a ineluctable reality, no matter how hard you try to use present day circumstances to distort matters and avoid this economic maxim.

In order to consider what the future will hold you have to consider the past. In the context of countless other government cost predictions. The example of the Scottish parliament, already cited, is one among many. Remember how North Sea Oil and the Gas were going to lower our fuel bills across the country? Rail privatization was also going to result in lower fares!! They forgot to tell us rail companies would be bailed out and we would have to pay. Remember how nuclear energy was going to reduce our fuel bills at a stroke? We are now paying France for nuclear generated electricity at prices which have a coal dispensation surcharge. There are too many other examples of suck and see economics that give a lie to your fare falling prediction. A casual thumb through MoD files and those of most Ministries show our national bean counters - on whose ability you base your predictions - ineluctably shows they are several beans short of a complete abacus. The business case for HS2 is inherently flawed and can only be supported if you use the questionable logic of politicians, who change the rules and move the goal posts to suit the answer they want and ignore the facts.

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